APRIL 2, 11:30EST
SANTIAGO, Chile, -- Teal Group Corporation announced completion of its Airborne Infrared Countermeasures (IRCM) Forecast for 2002-2011, during the FIDAE 2002 International Air and Space Show taking place here this week.
"The infrared countermeasures market will almost triple over the next decade, to $700 million annually by 2008, for a total value of $5 billion this decade," said Dr. David Rockwell, senior electronics analyst for Teal Group's Military Electronics Briefing, the 1,500-page monthly-updated competitive intelligence service in which the new forecast will be published. The MEB includes almost 300 reports on individual US electronics programs, with more than 70 individual electronic warfare (EW) program forecasts. (For additional details, visit www.tealgroup.com).
The continuing proliferation of man-portable shoulder-fired infrared-guided SAMs, the primary cause of combat aircraft and helicopter losses since the Gulf War, has led to a number of new, next-generation directed infrared countermeasures systems, according to the report. Current IRCM systems, such as BAE Systems' AN/ALQ-144, use wide-angle heat lamps to counter missile seekers, but do not radiate enough energy in all directions to counter today's all-aspect IR-guided SAMs.
Teal Group's forecast discusses specific platforms and futures for four major new directed-energy IRCM programs: Northrop Grumman's AN/AAQ-24 Nemesis DIRCM (Directed IRCM) and LAIRCM (Large Aircraft IRCM), BAE Systems' AN/ALQ-212 ATIRCM (Advanced Threat IRCM), and the TADIRCM (Tactical Aircraft DIRCM), which recently completed testing as an Advanced Technology Development (ATD) program. All of these systems will begin either EMD or production in 2001 or 2002, according to Teal Group's forecast.
"Northrop Grumman has gotten a jump on the market with DIRCM, in production for the UK since early 2001," according to Rockwell. Teal Group believes DIRCM's opportunity to prove itself, in combat, could turn around the decline now expected for DIRCM after initial orders are filled in 2004-2005.
The market forecast notes that this same situation helped Raytheon with its AN/ALE-50 towed decoy, which garnered massive additional production funding after it saved several USAF B-1B bombers from (radar-guided) SAMs over Kosovo. Rockwell states, "If Northrop Grumman's DIRCM saves a helo full of soldiers in Afghanistan or Iraq, look for the possibility of an even greater shift away from ATIRCM. DIRCM production could stabilize at, or increase from, 2004 levels; there is plenty of ATIRCM market yet to be captured."
Teal Group notes, however, that despite problems and delays with ATIRCM, if the program survives recent cancellation threats BAE Systems will still be the world's leading IRCM producer from 2003-2006, with a total value of $800 million to Northrop Grumman's $540 million. After 2007, the $180 million per year TADIRCM program for fighters will determine the world IRCM leader.
"If TADIRCM comes online on schedule, it will have the same importance for IRCM as the US Air Force's Advanced Targeting Pod (ATP) competition did for the FLIR market," states Rockwell. "But in any case, these two companies will have a lock on world infrared countermeasures by the middle of the decade."
The IRCM Forecast, available now as a market overview, is part of a larger effort being conducted by Teal Group to provide a comprehensive look at the airborne electronic warfare (EW) market.
The Teal Group is an aerospace and defense market analysis firm based in Fairfax, Virginia, USA. It provides competitive intelligence to industry and government.
Military & Aerospace Electronics