By John McHale
LONDON - NATO force goals are motivating the shift toward smaller but more capable combat fleets, expanded ground surveillance, and more-efficient airborne early warning capability, say analysts at Frost & Sullivan’s Aerospace and defense Group.
Force modernization and stock replacement programs will promote strong and sustainable growth across the European airborne-intelligence, surveillance, target-acquisition, and reconnaissance (ISTAR) radar market. To benefit from growth opportunities, however, market participants will need to focus on developing next-generation technologies, Frost & Sullivan analysts say.
Recent research by Frost and Sullivan estimates that the European airborne radar market (composed of front-line aircraft radar, other fixed-wing aircraft radar, and helicopter radar) is likely to grow to $5.44 billion from 2005 to 2014, of which $440 million will be from new opportunities in the market.
Currently, a few, strong manufacturers are dominating the European airborne radar industry. However, as competition intensifies and a host of new challenges emerge, leading manufacturers will be compelled to reexamine their position on the value chain, Frost & Sullivan analysts say.
Uncertain procurement numbers for next-generation front-line fighter aircraft, together with the limited orders expected for fixed-wing surveillance and airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft beyond 2014 is placing tremendous pressures on airborne radar manufacturers, researchers say. Such anxieties are being exacerbated by the increasing longevity of current platforms and the rising cost-sensitivity of smaller and mid-size nations.
“To maintain their market share, large manufacturers will need to move up the value-chain and provide more capable solutions in an ever-more networked combat environment,” comments Frost & Sullivan Defense Analyst, Marko Lukovic. “To achieve this, market leaders will need to offer more capabilities to their customers by developing next-generation technologies across all three market segments.”
For instance, development of lightweight antenna and faster processors along with the need to equip smaller platforms are underlining the growing indispensability of synthetic-aperture-radar (SAR) technology. Radars with SAR and inverse-SAR (ISAR) capabilities are already standard equipment on most relevant platforms and this trend likely to persist on fighter aircraft, large dedicated platforms and helicopters, Frost & Sullivan analysts say.
The radar with SAR capabilities that is likely to offer particularly robust growth opportunities will be active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar. With its unmatched picture resolution, AESA is set to be the radar of the future for all types of aircraft. Next-generation fighter aircraft purchased by NATO are either likely to already have AESA or upgrade to this radar at a later stage.
In addition to powerful and precise sensors, modern air forces are demanding easy upgrade, flexibility, and low cost, all of which are features of commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) technologies. The close links between COTS technologies and sophisticated radar systems means that the increased use of COTS will have a positive ripple effect on the procurement of radars.
“Only the companies that make the right decisions today about which technologies to develop will be the ones still competing a decade from now,” Lukovic says. “Technology will be the key ‘enabler’ of the transformation process that is radically altering the defense marketplace.”
While major defense companies have already embraced this strategy, second-tier producers with a lower-cost base and closer relations with national suppliers will need to concentrate on technology innovation, thereby creating more competition in the market. This will be of special importance in markets for smaller, lighter and cheaper airborne radar, such as ones fitted on helicopters.
European Airborne ISTAR: Airborne Radar, a part of the C4ISR service, provides an overview and outlook for the market. It segments the market into front-line aircraft radar, other fixed-wing aircraft radar and helicopter radar, Frost & Sullivan researchers say.
For more information go online at aerospace.frost.com
