The worldwide digital IC market-which includes VR loop controllers, non-VR loop controllers, PFC loop controllers, converter-management ICs, and system ICs-is expected to grow from $169 million in 2006 to $796 million in 2011, a compound annual growth rate of 36.4 percent, according to analysts at Darnell Group Inc. in Corona, Calif.
Significant commercial strides have been made in digital power management and control over the past couple of years, and that segment has gathered steam, Darnell analysts say.
More power-converter companies have started introducing products that incorporate digital power management and control IC solutions, both analog and digital hybrid and pure digital. In the meantime, system makers are looking seriously at the benefits of digital control and coming up with their own, often proprietary, needs, Darnell analysts say.
These trends are occurring at various levels of implementation. Darnell’s edition of “Emerging Markets in Digital Power Electronics” proposes five levels of digital control for partitioning purposes: power conversion, which “closes the loop” in the power converter; converter management, which is digital control inside the power converter but outside the “loop”; board management, which is digital power control and management of the power converter at the board level; rack management, which is digital power management of the system; and facility management, which is digital power management at the facility level.
Certain economic factors are also driving the inevitability of digital over analog solutions. Analog IC technology follows its own version of “Moore’s Law.” This means that the die size of analog is shrinking by 30 percent every generation and the cost is cut in half every four to eight years.
In the case of digital ICs, the die size of digital is shrinking by two times every 18 to 24 months. However, the cost of every new generation is 10 to 20 percent higher, and thus it takes two to three years for digital to reduce the cost by two times.
The fabrication node to make digital controllers less costly than analog controllers already exists. It is being used to make the latest generation of microprocessors. Within two semiconductor process lifecycles, it will become cost-effective for use in commodity parts like power-supply controller ICs.
It is still too early for definitive regional forecast projections of digital power-management and control products. Therefore, projections are made based on current unit sales of power-supply products in the applications identified as having the most potential for adoption of digital control, along with the expectations companies have about their own sales and where they see future revenue.
The power supplies selected as good opportunities for digital control are external AC-DC power supplies (adapters and battery chargers); embedded AC-DC power supplies; isolated DC-DC converters; non-isolated DC-DC converters (point-of-load converters and voltage regulators); telecom rectifiers; external DC-DC converters used in communications power systems; and electronic lighting ballasts.
Currently, VR controllers dominate digital power-supply sales, and point-of-load converters are the largest emerging digital power-supply market. That is expected to change over the forecast period, with other power products taking significant market share from these two segments.
Acknowledging that digital power management and control is still emerging, this report provides perceptions of the current market, based on a “benchmarking” survey of semiconductor, power-converter, and system makers.
The survey attempts to forecast what companies will emerge as the leaders in the digital power market. To determine this, one of the best tools to use is mindshare. The better a company’s product is perceived to be, the higher the mindshare and the more likely the company is to generate market share.
The benchmarking survey includes questions to determine the leaders in the digital power IC market, the digital power-converter market, and the overall digital power market. Companies are rated on Price, Interoperability, Design Tools, Hybrid (Analog/Digital) Solutions, and Pure Digital Solutions.
Although digital power is only a small portion of today’s power electronics industry, its growth and development is expected to play a major role in the future of power conversion and power management. The market at both the semiconductor and power-conversion levels is expected to remain extremely competitive, with large multinational corporations competing with smaller regional companies for market share.
For more information contact Darnell Group online at www.darnell.com.
