Boeing forecasts demand for 43,600 commercial aircraft through 2044
PARIS - The Boeing Company in Arlington County, Va., announced that it forecasts global demand for 43,600 new commercial airplanes over the next 20 years, with emerging markets playing a central role in fueling that growth, according to its 2025 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) released ahead of the Paris Air Show.
The aerospace manufacturer projects that by 2044, more than half of the global commercial fleet will be based in emerging markets, up from nearly 40% in 2024. Growing middle classes, expanding airline networks, and continued investment in aviation infrastructure are cited as key drivers of this trend.
"Throughout the first quarter of this century, passenger air traffic tripled and the global airplane fleet more than doubled," said Brad McMullen, Boeing senior vice president of Commercial Sales and Marketing. "Resilience will remain a hallmark of this growing industry as we continue to see strong demand for new airplanes with commercial aviation returning to its pre-pandemic growth trajectory."
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Boeing anticipates annual passenger traffic growth of 4.2%, outpacing global GDP growth and more than doubling total air travel volumes. The global fleet is expected to expand from 27,400 to over 49,600 aircraft, with about 80% of in-service airplanes to be replaced, improving fuel efficiency and environmental performance.
Single-aisle jets will continue to dominate, comprising 72% of the fleet by 2044 - up from 66% in 2024 - largely due to strong demand for short-haul and low-cost travel options in developing regions. Meanwhile, the global widebody fleet is projected to grow from approximately 4,400 to 8,320 aircraft, reflecting expanding long-haul operations from emerging market carriers.
Air cargo is also poised for significant growth, with Boeing forecasting demand for 2,900 new and converted freighters. Supply chain diversification and expanding express networks are expected to drive a near two-thirds increase in the global freighter fleet.
Despite strong demand, the industry continues to face lingering effects from the COVID-19 pandemic. Aircraft supply remains more than 20% below pre-pandemic levels, and 2024 deliveries remained near 2012 levels, even as air travel rose 60% over the same period. Airlines are extending aircraft service life and flying jets more intensively - single-aisle planes are averaging 15% more daily utilization compared to 2019.
Boeing’s analysis also highlights how airline business models have evolved to offer a wider range of fare options and service levels. Industry trends show that travel spending has returned to pre-pandemic norms, and networks now serve 30% more airport pairs than a decade ago.
The full 2025 report is available at www.boeing.com/cmo.
