WASHINGTON, 9 Feb. 2006. Aerospace companies worldwide will build and launch 176 geostationary orbit commercial satellites between 2006 and 2015, according to a market forecast from Teal Group Corp.
That market will be worth an estimated $28.3 billion.
"We've been launching an average of just over 15 large commercial satellites annually during the past three years, and we expect this level to remain about the same in 2006," said Marco Caceres, lead analyst for Teal Group's World Space Systems Briefing. The briefing is a 1,400-page monthly competitive intelligence service, including this and nine other consolidated forecasts, plus over 180 separate space program reports.
"However, there will be some noticeable growth in the market beginning in 2007, with closer to 20 satellites going up each year during 2007-2009. That will put the market back to where it was in the late 1990s," he said.
The study cites last year's 19 orders -- an increase of 37 percent over 2004 -- for GEO commercial satellites as a major reason for the near-term increase in launch projections. The entry into the market of at least a dozen new satellite operators will also result in orders during the next two years, which means that a relatively high number of satellites should continue to be launched in 2008-2009.
New operators such as TerreStar Networks and WildBlue Communications will join traditional operators such as Intelsat and SES Global. Also, countries such as China and India will build and launch many more satellites that they did during the past 10 years.
Of the total GEO commercial satellites forecasted, China and India alone will account for approximately 20 percent, compared with a 22 percent combined share for 19 U.S. companies, including major players such as DirecTV, Echostar, Loral Skynet, Panamsat, and SES Americom.
The forecast includes this schedule of annual predictions for new satellites:
2006: 15
2007: 19
2008: 18
2009: 23
2010: 17
2011: 15
2012: 13
2013: 16
2014: 21
2015: 19
TOTAL: 176
Teal Group is a defense and aerospace consulting firm based in Fairfax, Va. It provides competitive market intelligence to industry and government. For more information, see www.tealgroup.com.
