PARIS, France, 15 June 2009.Bombardier Aerospace officials released their annual market forecasts for the business and commercial aircraft – avionics – markets today at the Paris Air Show.
"The financial turbulence being felt around the globe has placed a significant focus on the challenges facing the aviation industry, particularly within the business jet sector," says Mairead Lavery, vice president, strategy and business development at Bombardier Aerospace "The sharp downturn in global economies in late 2008 precipitated a sharp decline in demand that affected aircraft manufacturers, suppliers, and operators. With demand for air travel closely linked to economic growth, we anticipate continued volatility in the aerospace industry in the near term. However, despite the current recession, the market fundamentals are strong in the long term. As the world begins to emerge from this economic crisis, demand should gradually return and future prospects remain solid."
In the 10-year period from 2009 to 2018, the "Bombardier Business Aircraft Market Forecast" predicts that business jet manufacturers will deliver a total of 11,500 aircraft with revenues of approximately $256 billion U.S. for the industry.
While in the short term the industry faces challenges such as high pre-owned inventories, negative public perceptions, and a difficult economic climate, company officials say that there is a strong potential for the business aircraft industry over the next 10 years. The anticipated return of global economic growth is expected to result in a strong recovery in the demand for business jets.
The worldwide business jet fleet included approximately 13,600 aircraft at the end of 2008. It is expected to grow by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 5.8 per cent over the forecast period to some 23,800 units after aircraft retirements, Bombardier officials say.
Bombardier officials say the market needs new, innovative aircraft that provide operators with optimized solutions designed to meet their business objectives.
The "Bombardier Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast" has demand for 20- to 149-seat commercial aircraft at 12,400 new aircraft deliveries in the 20-year period from 2009 to 2028. Despite a slight adjustment in demand from last year's forecast, the long term fundamentals within the industry remain positive, Bombardier officials say. The forecasted demand is valued at approximately $589 billion U.S.
Continued downward yield pressure, projected fuel price increases and environmental concerns will reinforce operators' requirement for modern aircraft with low operating costs, company officials say. "As a result, we anticipate a trend towards the right-sizing of more fuel-efficient aircraft types and a significant number of retirements. Sixty per cent, or 6,900 units, of the current 20- to 149-seat market are expected to be retired over the period of the forecast."