Boeing predicts need for 39,620 new airplanes valued at $5.9 trillion
SEATTLE, 21 July 2016.Boeing (NYSE:BA) officials project a demand over the next 20 years for 39,620 new airplanes, representing an estimated total value of $5.9 trillion and an increase of 4.1 percent over last year's forecast.
"Despite recent events that have impacted the financial markets, the aviation sector will continue to see long-term growth with the commercial fleet doubling in size," explains Randy Tinseth, vice president of marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "We expect to see passenger traffic grow 4.8 percent a year over the next two decades."
Boeing’s annual Current Market Outlook (CMO) predicts:
The single-aisle market will be especially strong, marked by low-cost carriers and emerging markets driving growth, demand for 28,140 new airplanes, and an increase of more than 5 percent over last year.
On the wide-body side, 9,100 airplanes are in the forecast, with a wave of potential replacement demand in the 2021-2028 time frame and a continued shift from very large airplanes to small and medium wide-bodies such as the 787, 777, and 777X.
Cargo traffic is forecasted to grow at 4.2 percent per year, prompting the need for 930 new freighters and 1,440 converted freighters.
The Asia market, including China, will continue to lead the way in total airplane deliveries over the next two decades.
Boeing officials also foresee demand for 1,850 new airplanes in India, valued at $265 billion, over the next 20 years – representing more than 4.6 percent of the total global demand (of 39,620 new airplanes over two decades). Single-aisle airplanes will continue to account for the largest share of new deliveries, with airlines in India needing approximately 1,560 airplanes to support the growth of low-cost carriers and replace older, less-efficient airplanes.
New Airplane Deliveries Through 2035 | |||
Airplane type | Seats | Total deliveries | Dollar value |
Regional jets | 90 and below | 2,380 | $110 billion |
Single-aisle | 90 – 230 | 28,140 | $3,000 billion |
Small widebody | 200 – 300 | 5,100 | $1,350 billion |
Medium widebody | 300 – 400 | 3,470 | $1,250 billion |
Large widebody | 400 and above | 530 | $220 billion |
Total | --------- | 39,620 | $5.9 trillion |
New Airplane Deliveries Through 2035 | |
Region | Airplane deliveries |
Asia | 15,130 |
North America | 8,330 |
Europe | 7,570 |
Middle East | 3,310 |
Latin America | 2,960 |
Africa | 1,150 |
C.I.S. | 1,170 |
Total | 39,620 |
“India continues to have a strong commercial aerospace market and the highest domestic traffic growth in the world,” describes Dinesh Keskar, senior vice president, Asia Pacific and India Sales, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. “With the new aviation policies in place, we see even greater opportunities and remain confident in the market and the airlines in India.”
New Airplane Deliveries to India: 2016-2035
Airplane type | Seats | Total new deliveries | Dollar value |
Regional jets | 90 and below | 10 | <$1B |
Single-aisle | 90-230 | 1,560 | $180B |
Widebody | 200+ | 280 | $85B |
Total | 1,840 (4.6% of world total) | $265 (4.5% of world total) |
Search the Aerospace & Defense Buyer's Guide
You might also like:
Subscribe today to receive all the latest aerospace technology and engineering news, delivered directly to your e-mail inbox twice a week (Tuesdays and Thursdays). Sign upfor your free subscription to the Intelligent Inbox e-newsletter at http://www.intelligent-aerospace.com/subscribe.html.
Connect with Intelligent Aerospace on social media: Twitter (@IntelligentAero), LinkedIn,Google+, and Instagram.
Intelligent Aerospace
Global Aerospace Technology NetworkIntelligent Aerospace, the global aerospace technology network, reports on the latest tools, technologies, and trends of vital importance to aerospace professionals involved in air traffic control, airport operations, satellites and space, and commercial and military avionics on fixed-wing, rotor-wing, and unmanned aircraft throughout the world.
Courtney E. Howard | Chief Editor, Intelligent Aerospace
Courtney enjoys writing about all things high-tech in PennWell’s burgeoning Aerospace and Defense Group, which encompasses Intelligent Aerospace and Military & Aerospace Electronics. She’s also a self-proclaimed social-media maven, mil-aero nerd, and avid avionics and space geek. Connect with Courtney at [email protected], @coho on Twitter, on LinkedIn, and on Google+.
