BEIJING - Boeing expects China’s airlines to acquire 8,600 new airplanes valued at $1.4 trillion and commercial aviation services valued at $1.7 trillion over the next 20 years, reflecting an expected robust recovery following the COVID-19 pandemic. Boeing shared its annual China market forecast as part of the 2020 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), which shows anticipated demand for commercial airplanes and services.
China’s rapidly growing middle class, increased economic growth and growing urbanization are all factors in the Boeing forecast, suggesting the country will lead passenger travel globally in the next few years. Since 2000, China’s commercial jet fleet has expanded sevenfold, and approximately 25% of all aviation growth worldwide in the last decade has come from China. Boeing forecasts this trend will continue over the next 20 years.
Despite the challenges imposed by the pandemic, China’s projected airplane and services market represents a nearly 7% increase over last year’s 20-year CMO forecast. These increases are driven by continued high demand for single-aisle airplanes and China’s expanding share of passenger widebodies to support international routes, along with a large replacement cycle as China’s fleet matures. Boeing also anticipates growth in Chinese demand for new and converted freighters and digital solutions to help carriers further innovate and succeed.
The 2020 China CMO includes:
Boeing forecasts China’s annual passenger traffic growth to be 5.5% over the next 20 years
Boeing estimates operators will need more than 6,450 new single-aisle airplanes in China over the next 20 years. Single-aisle airplanes, such as the 737 family, continue to be the main driver of capacity growth
In the widebody market, Boeing forecasts demand for 1,590 deliveries by 2039 in China. Widebody airplanes will account for 18% of China’s deliveries during the 20-year period, down 4% from last year’s forecast due to an anticipated slower recovery in global long-haul traffic
China has the world’s highest e-commerce growth rate but significant room for development of air express shipping, presenting an opportunity for robust freighter demand
Long-term aviation industry growth in China is expected to drive the need for 395,000 commercial pilots, cabin crew members and aviation technicians to fly and to maintain the country’s airplane fleet
The complete forecast is available at http://www.boeing.com/commercial/market/commercial-market-outlook/.
