Posted by John McHale
FARNBOROUGH, England, 21 July 2010. Bombardier Aerospace's annual aircraft market forecasts for the business and commercial aircraft markets indicatesthat while the business aircraft and commercial aircraft markets were affected by the recession, business indicators show improvement with positive signs for the global industry in 2010. Bombardier officials say that the market fundamentals are strong in the long term and that there is reason to be cautiously optimistic that demand for new commercial aircraft and business jets will return, with emerging market opportunities in China, India, and other developing regions stimulating the recovery. Business aircraft market forecast In a 20-year period from 2010 to 2029, the Bombardier Business Aircraft Market Forecast predicts there will be a return to growth with business jet manufacturers delivering a total of 26,000 business jets in all segments in which Bombardier competes (from light to large categories). The forecasted 26,000 deliveries over the 20-year period represent total revenues of approximately $661 billion for the industry, of which 10,500 deliveries worth $254 billion are anticipated in the period from 2010 to 2019, and 15,500 deliveries worth $407 billion in the period from 2020 to 2029, according to the bombardier release. Bombardier officials caution that while there are signs of stabilization in the business aircraft industry, historically a lag exists between economic recovery and its positive impact on revenues. due to the long-term positive outlook the company will continue to invest in its in-development Learjet 85 aircraft and Global Vision flight deck programs. Commercial aircraft market forecast According to the Bombardier Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast, demand for 20- to 149-seat commercial aircraft is expected to reach 12,800 new aircraft in the 20-year period from 2010 to 2029. This is an increase of 400 units compared to last year’s forecast. The forecasted delivery demand is valued at approximately $612 billion, according to the Bombardier release. Demand for new commercial aircraft is directly related to the strength of the global economy, and in this 20-year forecast, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate forecast has increased to 3.2 per cent from 2.98 per cent last year. Bombardier Commercial Aircraft forecasts delivery demand of 200 new aircraft in the 20- to 59-seat aircraft segment; delivery demand of 5,900 new aircraft in the 60- to 99-seat aircraft segment; and delivery demand of 6,700 new aircraft in the 100- to 149-seat segment. Over the next 20 years, commercial aircraft demand from markets outside of North America and Europe is expected to increase considerably -- with China’s fleet of 20- to 149-seat commercial aircraft expected to become the third largest, closely behind Europe and the U.S.