Boeing forecasts air cargo traffic to double in the next 20 years

ARLINGTON, Va. - The Boeing Company in Arlington County, Va. released its 2024 World Air Cargo Forecast (WACF), projecting that air cargo traffic will grow by an average of 4% annually through 2043. The biennial report indicates that air cargo demand has surpassed pre-pandemic levels and will likely continue its upward trajectory over the next two decades. 

According to the 2024 WACF, the global air cargo fleet is projected to grow from 2,340 freighters in 2023 to 3,900 by 2043, a 67% increase. Demand from high-growth Asian markets is expected to nearly double the large widebody freighter fleet. Around half of all freighter deliveries, through production and conversion, will replace aging aircraft with models that offer improved capabilities and fuel efficiency. Many older jets have stayed in service to meet recent market needs. The full 2024 World Air Cargo Forecast is available at www.boeing.com/wacf.

Regionally, East and South Asia are expected to experience the fastest growth in air cargo traffic, driven by economic expansion and rising consumer demand. The Asia-Pacific fleet is anticipated to nearly triple, with carriers in that region needing about 980 aircraft deliveries, followed closely by North America, which is expected to require 955. Together, these regions will account for more than two-thirds of global deliveries. In India, the domestic air cargo market is expected to nearly quadruple as express and e-commerce networks grow.

Related: Boeing says China's commercial air fleet predicted to double in the next two decades

Express carriers are forecast to expand faster than the broader industry, driven by their increasing role in e-commerce and the growth of express networks in emerging markets. By 2043, express carriers are projected to handle one-quarter of the air cargo market, up from the current 18%.

Over the 20-year period, Boeing anticipates 2,845 freighter deliveries, including 1,005 new production freighters and 1,840 conversions. The deliveries are expected to comprise 1,250 standard-body, 785 medium widebody, and 810 large widebody freighters.

"As the quickest and most reliable way to move goods, air cargo's sustained growth has returned the industry to its long-term trend," said Darren Hulst, Boeing vice president of Commercial Marketing. "There will be many drivers for continued freighter demand over the next 20 years, including expansion of emerging markets and global growth in manufacturing and e-commerce."