Airbus forecasts $311 billion global aviation services market by 2044

Questions and Answers:

Which service segment will grow the fastest? The digital and connectivity segment, projected to expand from $9 billion to $26 billion, will grow at a 5.6 percent CAGR.

How many new aviation professionals will be needed? The forecast calls for 2.35 million new personnel by 2044, including 633,000 pilots, 705,000 technicians, and 1.01 million cabin crew.

What regions will see the strongest growth? China, South Asia, and the Asia-Pacific region are expected to lead in growth, with China becoming the largest market by 2044.

TOULOUSE, France - Airbus in Toulouse, France, released its latest aviation Global Services Forecast (GSF), projecting a 10 percent year-on-year increase in total demand for services in 2025 and continued growth alongside expanding air traffic, reaching an estimated $311 billion by 2044 with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.6 percent.

Global passenger traffic is expected to reach five billion passengers in 2025, and airlines are under pressure to maintain high fleet availability, reliability, and operational efficiency.

Growth areas

The GSF identifies five key service segments driving growth as the global commercial fleet nearly doubles to more than 49,000 aircraft by 2044, with annual passengers expected to double to 10 billion:

• Off-wing maintenance - The largest aftermarket sector, growing from $107 billion in 2025 to $218 billion by 2044, driven by more shop visits from an expanding and aging fleet.
• On-wing maintenance - Rising from $21 billion to $34 billion, covering inspections and heavy checks tied to fleet expansion.
• Modifications and upgrades - Increasing from $12 billion to $17 billion, focused on cabin and systems improvements to enhance passenger experience and aircraft life.
• Digital and connectivity - The fastest-growing segment, expanding from $9 billion to $26 billion, emphasizing predictive maintenance, optimized flight paths and improved passenger connectivity.
• Training - Climbing from $10 billion to $17 billion, addressing demand for 2.35 million new aviation professionals by 2044, including 633,000 pilots, 705,000 technicians and 1.01 million cabin crew.

"With the reclustering of the Airbus GSF, we consider a bigger part of the ecosystem in which our customers operate. Especially digital solutions are becoming real multipliers, enabling operators to scale up without compromising on reliability or cost. This can lead to unlocking the potential of more than $83 billion in annual operational savings for our customers, through an increasing number of digitally connected aircraft - from 11,000 today to over 40,000 by 2044," said Cristina Aguilar Grieder, senior vice president of Customer Services at Airbus.

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Airbus is also exploring two additional segments: maintenance operations support, including engineering and inventory management, and ground operations, focusing on aircraft turnaround efficiency.

The services market is expected to support more than 28,000 aircraft in 2025 with a total value of $159 billion. By 2044, Airbus projects that off-wing maintenance will double, digital and connectivity will expand at a CAGR of 5.6 percent, and ground operations and maintenance support will grow to $74 billion and $100 billion, respectively.